What this document is
Hennepin County’s existing system as it actually operates, the stream HERC handles, and what the County’s own plan says about where material should and should not go.
- 1.3 million tons generated in 2024; 43% recycled against a 75% statutory requirement for 2030; 51% land disposed, 12% of it out of state.
- HERC processes 365,000 tons a year. Its non-hazardous ash is landfilled at Rosemount — a second disposal obligation on the same tonnage.
- There is no landfill capacity crisis in this region and we do not claim one. The constraint is policy: the County’s goal is to divert from landfills and incinerators alike.
Hennepin County
Feedstock System Assessment
Hennepin recycles 43% against a statutory 75%, land disposes 51%, and is retiring the facility that handles the rest.
How the system works today
Hennepin County is Minnesota’s largest, with about 1.3 million residents. Its material system has three destinations: recycling and organics; the Hennepin Energy Recovery Center; and landfill, including out-of-state landfill.
HERC is a County-owned waste-to-energy facility in Minneapolis processing 365,000 tons a year. Its non-hazardous combustion ash is disposed of at the SKB Landfill in Rosemount.
The County Board has directed that HERC be closed. The timeline is contested: the Board’s own direction contemplates 2028–2040, the Mayor of Minneapolis has signed a resolution urging closure by the end of 2027, and the Board Chair has advocated a four-step drawdown to full closure in December 2027.
Volumes and performance
| Measure | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Total generated, 2024 | ~1,300,000 tons | VERIFIED |
| Recycling rate | 43% | VERIFIED |
| Statutory requirement, metro counties | 75% by 2030 | VERIFIED |
| County diversion goal | 90%+ from landfills and incinerators | VERIFIED |
| Land disposed, 2023 | 51% | VERIFIED |
| Out-of-state landfilled, 2023 | 12% | VERIFIED |
| HERC throughput | 365,000 t/yr | VERIFIED |
| Delivered to HERC, 2024 | 363,000+ tons | VERIFIED |
| HERC gate rate, current | $77/ton | VERIFIED |
| HERC gate rate, contracted 2027 | $88/ton | VERIFIED |
On landfill capacity — we accept the published analysis
It would be convenient for us to argue that the region is running out of landfill space. The published analysis says it is not, and we are not going to argue against it.
The Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy’s 2025 reports find that the four landfills handling most of Hennepin’s material hold about 54.6 million tons of remaining capacity — sufficient until roughly 2061 at current rates, and until roughly 2054 even if HERC closes and its entire 365,000 tons a year is landfilled instead.
So the case for a manufacturing destination here is not scarcity. It is that the County has said it does not want to bury this material, and closing HERC without a third route means burying more of it, not less.
The ash stream
HERC’s combustion produces non-hazardous ash, landfilled at Rosemount. That is a disposal obligation the County carries on top of the gate rate, and it persists for as long as the facility runs.
To be explicit, because it matters in this county: Carbotura is not a waste-to-energy operator and does not perform combustion. An ACM plant has no stack and no air pollution control train, and it does not sell power, electricity or hydrogen. Waste-to-energy and coal ash are a material class Carbotura accepts as feedstock. An ACM plant produces no ash of its own — there is no combustion to produce one — and can take ash as an input stream.
This is worth separating from the main proposition because it is smaller, nearer-term, and does not depend on the HERC closure timeline.
Siting
No candidate site has been identified or assessed. This assessment does not propose one, and the map in this document marks the point where the stream aggregates today rather than any proposed location.
The requirement: Phase Initial at 400 TPD needs approximately 5–8 acres, industrial-zoned. Phase Medium at 1,000 TPD needs roughly 12–20 acres with a building footprint on the order of 150,000–250,000 sq ft, inside a single building. Proximity to the aggregation point is the dominant criterion.
What this means for a deployment
Hennepin presents a 365,000 t/yr stream with a destination that is being removed by the County’s own decision, against a published goal of diverting from both burning and burial, and a statutory recycling requirement it is 32 points short of.
A Phase Initial deployment of 400 TPD takes 40% of that stream. Phase Medium takes it whole. The sizing is deliberately conservative against a verified volume, and no part of it depends on a landfill capacity argument.
Appendix A — Data status
VERIFIED: 2024 generation and recycling rate; the 75% statutory metro requirement; the County’s 90%+ diversion goal; 2023 land-disposal and out-of-state percentages; HERC throughput and 2024 deliveries; HERC gate rates for current, 2026 and 2027; ash destination; the MCEA capacity findings; the closure positions of the Board, the Mayor and the Board Chair.
ESTIMATED: composition split by material class; employment; site requirements. NOT ESTABLISHED: post-closure disposal cost per ton. NOT IDENTIFIED: any candidate site. NOT VERIFIED: the current status of Hennepin’s waste designation ordinance under Minn. Stat. ch. 115A, which is noted as a question rather than relied upon.
Appendix B — Sources
- Hennepin County Environment and Energy — 2024 Solid Waste Management Plan; recycling progress report; HERC board briefing
- City of Minneapolis — waste disposal services contract
- Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy — metro landfill capacity reports, 2025
- Minnesota statute — metro county recycling requirement